Stalemate: Little Policy Change if Republicans Take U.S. House 

By Christian Roselund

While final results of the “mid-term” elections in the United States are not yet confirmed, it is likely the Republican Party will gain a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. As of 14 November 2022, 203 of 435 House seats have been called for the Democratic Party and 212 for Republicans. 218 seats are required for a majority. And while the Democratic Party was able to maintain its majority in the U.S. Senate, Republican control of even one house of the U.S. Congress has significant implications for federal legislation and the direction of U.S. energy policy for the next two years.

Before the election prominent Republicans expressed the desire to weaken or overturn the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which provides substantial incentives for clean energy deployment and manufacturing and received no Republican support. However, given the election results it is unlikely that Republicans will be able to even repeal limited provisions in the law.  

This means that the main incentives for solar, wind and energy storage deployment and manufacturing in the IRA will remain in place for at least the next two years. The next Congress will have the opportunity to act on across-the-board permitting reform for energy and mining facilities, which could be important for more rapidly advancing clean energy projects.

Dynamics of Partisan Control

In recent years Republicans in Congress often voted as a unified block against Democratic Party proposals, including clean energy legislation. As such, if Republicans gain control of the U.S. House Democrats will not be able to advance clean energy policies at the federal level that have been popular at the state level, such as a national clean energy mandate and a phase-out date for internal combustion engine vehicles.

However, Republicans are also unlikely to be able to advance a partisan agenda, leaving a likely situation of legislative stalemate not unlike what was seen in previous “split” Congresses.

House Republicans have already signaled that they intend to scrutinize federal spending under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Representative Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Washington), the ranking member of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, has stated that she will use her committee to hold hearings on IRA subsidies. This in turn will put pressure on Treasury officials and could slow the roll-out of rules implementing IRA tax credits.

But to get bills passed, Republican Senators will have to find areas where it can work with at least some of their Democratic colleagues.

Potential for Collaboration on Permitting Reform

The new Congress brings the potential for collaboration between Centrist Democrats and Republicans on the issue of permitting reform. U.S. Senator Joe Manchin attempted in late September 2022 to pass legislation to overhaul permitting and transmission approval but was forced to withdraw his language from a bill funding the federal government (See the 4 October 2022 U.S. Energy Transition Report for more details).

Republicans said that Manchin’s bill didn’t go far enough to remove barriers and have referred to their own legislation. However, Republicans will have to compromise. One way this could manifest is by ensuring that permitting reform not only expedites approval and removes roadblocks from fossil fuels and nuclear power, but that it benefits all sources including renewable energy, as it did in Manchin’s bill.

Such a move could play a role in more rapid deployment of wind and solar. It is particularly important for offshore wind, which is dependent on a multi-year federal permitting process, as well as renewable energy projects on public lands. Reforming the approval process for transmission could also be important. However, Republicans pushed back on giving the federal government more control over transmission approval in Manchin’s legislation and it is not clear whether expedited approval for transmission will make it into future efforts or not.

Manchin is expected to re-introduce his bill as an attachment to a military spending bill in the “lame duck” session before the next Congress is convened in January. The CEO of the permitting institute told E&E News that he expects this to lay the groundwork for a compromise in the first half of 2023.
Another area of common interest between centrist Democrats and Republicans is removal of barriers to build supply chains for critical minerals, including those used in lithium-ion batteries and wind turbines. Republicans have long pushed for more mineral extraction on public lands, and this could create the ground for a compromise.

Analysis: US Midterms 2022: Makeup of next US Congress weighs on permitting reform push (S&P Global)

Analysis: Midterms: A lesson in climate politics (Politico)

Analysis: Wanted: House Dem who can refute Republican attacks (E&E News)

Analysis: Fossil fuel, renewable trade groups explore potential paths to energy bipartisanship in a divided Congress (UtilityDive)