Regulator Warns of Blackouts during Severe Winter Weather

By Christian Roselund

The organization that oversees electric system reliability for North America has warned of potential blackouts across large areas this winter due to the bulk power system not having enough energy – including generating capacity, imports, and in some cases fuel – during severe weather. The North American Electric Reliability Corporation’s (NERC) 2022-2023 Winter Reliability Assessment warns of “extreme weather risks” in Alberta, parts of the Midwestern and Southeastern United States, Texas, and the Atlantic  Provinces of Canada. NERC has also warned that limitations on fuel supply could cause electricity system disruptions during extreme cold weather events in New England.

While the word “climate” is never used in the report, the problems identified by NERC represent the intersection of more severe weather driven by the climate crisis and changes to the electricity system. Specifically, the organization identifies higher peak-demand projections, inadequate weatherization of power plants, fuel supply risks, and limited natural gas infrastructure as key challenges in different parts of North America.

NERC has specifically warned that there will not be enough generation under the most severe conditions in certain areas. This is expressed as reserve margins of available generation and imports that fall below zero in Texas, the Atlantic Provinces, the Midcontinent System Operator (MISO), and Alberta under “extreme conditions.” Texas is by far the worst with a potential -21.4% reserve margin under this scenario.

In February 2021, up to 4.5 million residents of Texas lost electricity in temperatures that fell as low as -19C during Winter Storm Uri. While the state has estimated that 246 residents died, an independent analysis by Buzzfeed New suggests that more than 750, including many who were medically vulnerable, were killed. Texas Governor Greg Abbott blamed the outages on wind and solar generation. However, independent analyses have shown multiple other causes, including the failure of the state’s natural gas system, including both pipelines and natural gas plants, as well as limited electrical connections to other grids, were greater contributors.

NERC notes that after Winter Storm Uri, regulators, the state’s grid operator, and generators have implemented reforms. This includes a move by Texas regulators to designate critical natural gas facilities and to inspect facilities to ensure compliance with regulators. Texas’ grid operator has also procured over 2,900 megawatts of firm fuel supplies for the winter, all of which must keep 48 hours of backup fuel on hand.

Among the areas where warnings are issued, New England stands out. The region is expected to have an above-zero reserve margin even under the most severe operating conditions. However, NERC echoes warnings by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and New England’s grid operator that natural gas supplies may be insufficient to satisfy demand from both heating and electricity generation under extreme weather conditions.

NERC issued similar warnings in May 2022 regarding summer reliability concerns. However, despite an assessment of “elevated risk” across the entire Western United States, Saskatchewan, Texas, and the U.S. Plains States and “high” risk for the MISO grid, there were no large-scale power outages during the summer months in these regions.

Source: 2022-2023 Winter Reliability Assessment (NERC)