California Plans Renewable Energy Build-Out for Carbon Neutrality

By Christian Roselund

On 15 December 2022 the California Air Resources Board (CARB) approved a new plan to reduce state greenhouse gas emissions 85% by 2045 and achieve carbon neutrality through natural carbon sinks. The 2022 Scoping Plan (the Plan) for Achieving Carbon Neutrality also sets a target to reduce emissions 48% by 2030, and includes actions in the transportation, electricity, buildings, industry, and agriculture sectors.

For the electricity sector, the Plan quantifies the build-out of renewable energy generation to accommodate the electrification of heating and transportation while reducing emissions. California already has a mandate for the state’s electric utilities to source 60% of their generation from renewable sources by 2030, 90% from zero-carbon sources by 2035, and 100% by 2045. However, CARB calculates that even with efficiency measures, electricity demand will grow 26% by 2030 and 76% by 2045 versus 2022 figures.

To meet this demand, the agency estimates a need for 76 gigawatts of utility-scale solar, 29 gigawatts of customer-sited solar and 37 gigawatts of battery storage. This will require an average of 60% more solar to be installed every year than has ever been installed in any given year to date, and 700% more battery storage. This does not include capacity associated with hydrogen production or mechanical carbon dioxide removal. The agency does include the twenty gigawatts of offshore wind that California has set as a target for deployment.

CARB stresses that ongoing appliance and building energy standards are also part of the state’s plan for the electricity sector, as is work at state regulatory agencies to better integrate distributed energy resources. The Plan also notes that the transformation it envisions will require “significant transmission” to not only accommodate new resources but to access out-of-state resources and serve load pockets in California. Among the plan’s strategies for success is to continue to explore the benefits of regional markets, which California’s grid operator is doing with both intra-day and day-ahead regional market mechanisms.

The Plan also emphasizes the need to maintain system reliability during this transition. CARB notes that the state narrowly avoided blackouts in September 2022 despite additional battery storage capacity, load reductions, and increased coordination both in-state and with utilities in neighboring states. In its strategies section, CARB states that complete systemwide and local reliability assessments should be completed before state agencies update electricity sector emissions targets.

The transportation sector, which represents 40% of California’s emissions, likewise features aggressive targets. California has already mandated that new automobiles sold in the state shift entirely to electric vehicles by 2035. However, this alone will only transition a small portion of the state’s existing fleet off gasoline and diesel by 2030. Therefore, the state is aiming to reduce vehicle miles traveled 25% below 2019 levels by 2030 and 30% by 2035 through a combination of promoting mass transit and active mobility along with complementary land use changes.

Source: 2022 Scoping Plan for Achieving Carbon Neutrality (CARB)