SEIA Expects 2022 U.S. Solar Installations to Fall 23%

By Christian Roselund

On 13 December 2022 Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) predicted that final 2022 U.S. solar installation figures would fall 23% year-over-year to only 18.6 gigawatts-DC, the lowest annual volume since 2019. This estimate accompanied the release of Q3 2022 installation figures, which show only 4.6 gigawatt-DC installed nationwide. SEIA describes the U.S.-market as “supply-constrained” and blames trade actions including the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA).

Under UFLPA U.S. Customs officials have detained more than 1,000 shipments of PV cells and modules. The first shipment releases occurred in November and have been described as small. UFLPA implementation in June compounded U.S. solar market supply constraints from the solar anti-circumvention decision and the Hoshine Withhold Release Order.

Together, these three policies had a profoundly negative impact on supply for the import-dependent U.S. utility-scale market, which is reflected in SEIA’s figures. The organization expects only 10.3 gigawatts-DC of utility-scale solar to be installed in 2022, a 40% decline from 2021 levels.

By contrast, residential solar set another record during Q3 2022 with 1.585 gigawatts installed, which SEIA notes is driven by the compelling economics of rooftop solar.

SEIA expects relief to import challenges in the second half of 2023. The organization forecasts that solar market growth will resume in 2023 and thereafter, driven by the incentives in the Inflation Reduction Act.

Source: Solar Market Insight Report Q4 2022 (SEIA)