S&P Global: Large-Scale Solar, Wind Installations Declined in 2022

By Christian Roselund

S&P Global has published data for newly installed electricity generation capacities for 2022, indicating that both solar and wind installations fell sharply during the year. S&P reports that while solar and wind were the largest forms of generation, that only 9.3 gigawatts-AC of large-scale solar (installations larger than 1 megawatt) and 6.7 gigawatts-AC of wind were installed.

Together these two sources represented 64.7% of new generating capacity, with natural gas-fired power plants making up most of the remainder.

The 6.7 gigawatts of wind installed represents a 41% decline in wind installations from 2021 levels. S&P Global did not provide analysis to explain the decline, however in its report on Q3 installations American Clean Power Association (ACP) cited the effects of policy uncertainty around tax incentives. While this uncertainty was resolved in August with a 10-year extension of the Production Tax Credit via the Inflation Reduction Act, due to the time it takes to permit, interconnect and build new wind projects there will inevitably be a delay between the restoration of incentives and
market recovery.

The 9.3 gigawatts figure for large-scale solar should be seen as a preliminary number. Between March 2022 and January 2023 S&P Global revised its estimate of total 2022 solar installations upward by 2.3 gigawatts, and currently estimates that during the year 13.4 gigawatts of utility-scale solar. As such we can estimate some upward revision of installation numbers during the coming months. Regardless, during the first nine months of 2022 only 76% of the solar was installed in 2022
compared to the same period in 2021.

ACP, Solar Energy Industries Association, and consultancy Wood Mackenzie all attribute the decline in solar installations in 2022 to trade policies that have restricted imports and created uncertainty in the market. And as gigawatts of modules are still detained under the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act, these organizations expect that this policy will depress 2023 installations as well.

Source: US generating capacity additions down YOY in 2022; solar takes top spot (S&P Global)